November 18, 2025
By Lori Long – Commercial Broker at Bray Commercial Real Estate
The latest GlobeSt analysis on Denver’s retail sector paints a striking picture: leasing demand is slowing sharply even as rents hover near five-year highs. For Western Colorado observers, this invites an obvious question; How does Grand Junction’s retail landscape compare?
The Denver metro retail market remains one of the tightest in the country, with vacancy around 4.3 percent according to Colliers and Corken + Company. Prime corridors such as Cherry Creek and LoDo command rents in the $30–$45 per-square-foot range. Yet GlobeSt’s October 2025 analysis notes that leasing velocity has fallen, absorption turned negative in several submarkets, and new store openings are not keeping pace with closures.
In short, Denver’s landlords are holding firm on pricing but tenants are showing caution. Higher borrowing costs, construction expenses, and consumer pullback are squeezing expansions. The result is a market where rents look strong on paper but deal activity has cooled.
Grand Junction: Stable, Affordable, and Adapting
Drive four hours west, and the picture changes dramatically. In Grand Junction and Mesa County, the retail environment is steady but soft, characterized by affordable space, modest demand growth, and creative reuse of older centers.
According to the City of Grand Junction’s commercial market summary (ecode360.com), local retail lease rates average $6–$12 per square foot, far below Denver levels. Vacancy hovers between 10 and 20 percent, concentrated along aging corridors such as North Avenue and Orchard Avenue.
Bray Commercial’s Q2 2025 Market Report notes that overall leasing inventory in Mesa County rose about 16 percent year-over-year, signaling more options for tenants and competitive conditions for landlords. Despite that, transaction volume stayed healthy, and several major revitalization projects like the Valley Plaza renovation that underscore confidence in the market’s long-term potential.
Comparing the Two Markets
| Metric | Denver Metro | Grand Junction / Mesa County |
| Retail Vacancy | ~4 % (tight) | 10–20 % (ample space) |
| Average Asking Rent | $27 – $46 / SF | $6 – $12 / SF |
| Leasing Trend | Declining demand, slower absorption | Increasing inventory, steady activity |
| Market Drivers | Urban density, high costs, limited new supply | Population growth, affordability, adaptive reuse |
| Risk Factors | Tenant resistance to high rents | Aging stock, slower turnover |
| Opportunities | Prime space holds premium value | Redevelopment and value-add investments |
What’s Behind the Differences
Recent Economic Signals
Together, these trends suggest a measured, sustainable retail cycle a contrast to Denver’s more volatile pattern.
What It Means for Western Colorado Owners & Investors
For landlords, the message is encouraging: while Grand Junction’s vacancy rates appear high, quality space still leases—and at stable, realistic rents. The competitive advantage lies in upgrading properties, improving signage, and attracting essential-service or lifestyle tenants that serve local demand.
For investors, cap rates in Mesa County remain favorable relative to Denver, offering entry points for long-term hold strategies. With construction costs still high, purchasing and repositioning existing assets may deliver stronger returns than building new.
For tenants, the environment provides choice and flexibility. Compared with Denver’s premium rents and compressed margins, Grand Junction offers affordable expansion opportunities in a community with steady population growth.
Outlook
The next several quarters will likely reinforce this divergence. As Denver’s high rents meet slowing absorption, we could see pricing adjustments or incentives emerge in select submarkets. Meanwhile, Grand Junction’s moderate pace positions it for gradual, sustainable improvement—particularly if revitalization projects continue and local consumer spending holds firm.
Both markets underscore the same truth: retail real estate today rewards quality, creativity, and community connection. In Denver, that means curating the right tenant mix in premium corridors. In Grand Junction, it means investing in spaces that reflect how Western Colorado shops, works, and gathers.
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