April 17, 2026
Authored by Matthew Parker, Commercial Broker with Bray Commercial Real Estate
On the first day of Fall 2024 classes at Colorado Mesa University, every one of the school’s 2,950 on-campus beds was occupied. Students who couldn’t be placed in a dorm were shuttled to a hotel on Horizon Drive miles from campus. Emily Bollinger, CMU’s Director of Residence Life, described it simply: the university had run out of room.
That image is more than a campus inconvenience. It is a precise snapshot of what is happening across the entire Grand Junction rental market. Demand is outrunning supply, and the gap is widening every year.
Two Demand Drivers. One Constrained Market.
Grand Junction’s housing pressure doesn’t come from one source. It comes from two converging forces hitting the same limited inventory at the same time.
The first is population growth. Grand Junction now sits at approximately 72,951 residents in 2026, growing at 1.67% annually, a rate that has pushed the city’s population up nearly 11% since the 2020 Census. Mesa County as a whole is projected to reach 214,206 residents by 2050, driven largely by net in-migration from more expensive Colorado markets. People are choosing Grand Junction because it still offers relative affordability, regional job access, and quality of life. They are arriving faster than the housing stock can absorb them.
The second force is Colorado Mesa University. CMU enrolled 9,788 students in Fall 2025, making it the largest university in western Colorado and the largest in the state outside the Front Range urban corridor. CMU’s Fall 2024 freshman class numbered 2,391 students, a 35% single-year increase. CMU Tech, the university’s trades-focused branch campus, grew 50% over just two years. Only about 30% of CMU’s student body lives on campus, meaning roughly 6,800 students rent in the same market as Grand Junction’s general workforce every single year.
When CMU pushed upperclassmen off campus in early 2025, those students didn’t disappear. They called landlords. They searched Apartments.com. They called brokers like myself. They competed with the public, for inventory that just was not there.
The Supply Side: A Deficit Measured in the Thousands
Against that demand picture, Grand Junction’s housing supply tells a stark story.
The city itself acknowledges a shortage of approximately 2,100 units for working families. Independent analysis from the Common Sense Institute puts the deficit between 897 and 2,413
units, noting that home costs have risen 87% over eight years while permitting has failed to keep pace. The rental vacancy rate sits at approximately 3.1%, described by Root Policy Research as an extremely tight rental market and roughly half the national healthy benchmark of 6 to 8%.
The pipeline offers little near-term relief. Grand Junction’s most significant housing initiative, the Salt Flats Project, targets between 324 and 550 new units on 22 acres acquired by the city in 2025. Construction isn’t expected to begin until late 2026, with first units available no earlier than Spring 2027. That project is primarily affordable and income-restricted housing, not market-rate product. Even in 2022, Grand Junction’s banner year for multifamily permitting at 725 new units, the city still didn’t come close to closing the deficit it carries today.
What This Means for the Multifamily Market
Curtis Englehart, Executive Director of the Grand Junction Economic Partnership, put it plainly in July 2025: “To support our growing economy, retain talent, and attract new industries, we must treat housing as core infrastructure.” When an economic development organization uses that language, the problem has moved beyond the social services conversation and into the investment conversation.
The fundamentals support that shift. Low vacancy and rising rents mean strong performance for stabilized assets. Grand Junction projects received nearly $10 million in state equity and grant funding in 2025 and early 2026 through Proposition 123 programs. The city is waiving impact fees for qualifying developments and convened a Housing Affordability Code Task Force in 2025 to remove zoning barriers. While Denver digests a glut of new supply with vacancy rates near 7%, Grand Junction operators are leasing into a market with virtually no concessions and a waitlist mentality.
The Window Is Open. For Now.
Mesa County will add more than 55,000 residents by 2050. CMU shows no signs of enrollment plateauing. The city’s largest housing project won’t deliver a unit for another year. The developers who move in the next 12 to 24 months will be leasing into a supply-starved market with real demand, city support, and state capital behind them. Grand Junction has been telling the market something for several years now. The question for multifamily investors is no longer whether to look at Grand Junction. It is whether they can afford to keep looking away.
Sources available upon request. Statistics sourced from the City of Grand Junction Housing Strategy Update (2024), Common Sense Institute Colorado, Root Policy Research, the Grand Junction Economic Partnership, KKCO11 News, KJCT8, the Colorado Governor’s Office, Zumper, and World Population Review.